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With United States’ first democratic presidential primary debates fast approaching, political analysts and observers of politics across the world are becoming increasingly focused on the question of whether Donald Trump will be reelected as president in 2020. Most of the academic models used by political scientists and historians predict that the country will witness a Trump reelection, with many people predicting his reelection since incumbent presidents often win reelections barring an economic recession, a crippling scandal, or an unpopular foreign military engagement. All these are typical of the Trump administration. At the moment, the economy is strong, the president has not launched any new military campaigns, and he was exonerated on the Mueller investigation. Nevertheless, others think that Trump’s reelection is not possible.
Judging from the conventional rubrics or models that political scientists use to predict the outcome of presidential elections, including polls (Backus, 2020), it seems that Donald Trump is on the right track towards a smooth 2020 reelection (Wilson, 2019). An analysis of how Trump won the 2016 election reveals that he might be likely to win reelection in 2020. Trump’s victory in 2016 was as a result of electoral efficiency, with him managing to assemble a classic minimal winning coalition in key states. Trump was able to dominate among the majority less educated voters and the college-educated white people, only losing the ethnic and racial minority voters. He demonstrated that he had favor with the majority of voters in the country, and it is likely that a repeat of what happened in 2016 will be witnessed in 2020.
Trump may not win reelection in 2020 as a result of his unconventional and unpopular methods and policies (Ghilarducci, 2020). Besides his key electorate segment, white voters having a college education, shrinking every year, Trump does nothing do win the hearts of other electorate segments. The demographic landscape in the country will be less favorable for Trump in 2020 compared to how it was in 2016 (Wilson, 2019). Moreover, he won the 2016 election by very narrow margins. Therefore, slight changes in the demographic landscape might prevent him from winning reelection. Trump’s policies on immigration and his insensitivity to immigration issues have further alienated the racial minority voters, making it difficult for him to win more voters in 2020. It will be difficult for him to win reelection, going by these issues.
Trump may find it difficult to win reelection since a large number of voters that supported him in 2016 seem to be displeased with his performance and the failure to “grow in office” (Wilson, 2019). A huge gender gap continues to develop in the attitudes of voters toward Trump. Women are displeased by Trump’s pugnacious and bombastic style of leadership (Ghilarducci, 2020). A huge number of college-educated white voters who voted for Trump in 2016 are disappointed by the president’s failure to show the expected norms of presidential behavior and expertise. This was evident in the outcome of the 2018 midterm elections, as a huge majority of white voters trended against the president’s party. Even with peace and prosperity in the country, the approval rating of the president is less than 50 percent. This means that Trump might have trouble winning reelection in 2020.
In conclusion, a Trump reelection remains unclear at the moment. While Trump may win reelection judging from the models that political scientists use to predict the outcomes of elections, it is clear that the American population wants positive politicians that can rise above conflict and division. Trump’s approach to issues such as immigration and international conflict seems to turn away more voters, every year, against him. However, a scenario where Trump achieves a narrow victory in 2020, similar to what happened in 2016, may occur. Donald Trump should, therefore, be considered a decided underdog for reelection in 2020.
References
Backus, F. (2020, February 23). CBS News poll: Most voters expect Trump will be reelected. Retrieved March 3, 2020, from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-poll-most-voters-expect-trump-will-be-reelected-cbs-news/
Ghilarducci, T. (2020, February 23). Will Trump Get Re-Elected? E.J. Dionne Provides A Guide. Retrieved March 3, 2020, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2020/02/23/will-trump-get-re-elected-and-does-it-matter-ej-dionnes-new-book/#2a1527923d49
Wilson, M. (2019, July 1). USA: Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? Retrieved March 3, 2020, from https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/usa-will-trump-be-re-elected-2020-23278
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